I think in theory cycles, in the sense that the price peaks, both maximum and minimum, occur separated by a very similar time.
Cycle theory can not predict ATH or ATB, at least to my knowledge. We can only guess that there may be a maximum or a minimum when some time has elapsed since the previous.
However, your study goes beyond this cycle of 900 days and is very dangerous for people to think that we will see an ATH in the coming weeks, as your graphs indicate.
We must be very clear, as you have advised your last post, but even more.
If in the next few weeks we have an ATH, everyone happy, but everyone should be clear that there is no security, at least in this cycle ... maybe in the next.
Cycle theory can not predict ATH or ATB, at least to my knowledge. We can only guess that there may be a maximum or a minimum when some time has elapsed since the previous.
However, your study goes beyond this cycle of 900 days and is very dangerous for people to think that we will see an ATH in the coming weeks, as your graphs indicate.
We must be very clear, as you have advised your last post, but even more.
If in the next few weeks we have an ATH, everyone happy, but everyone should be clear that there is no security, at least in this cycle ... maybe in the next.
Very well put. And yes, you are right - this sort of thing cannot predict how high the highs will be, or even IF it will reach a new ATH. I hope it is clear I am not advocating that this definitely is a crystal ball - I certainly would not want to see people lose money by trying to use these past trends to buy and sell.
My point in proposing the cycles is to illustrate that I believe the price is reflecting user sentiment, and basic human trends, which do tend to operate in cycles. There are many many factors at play in pricing, and I propose that in a "bull run" the sentiment is more positive, resulting in prices generally going up. Bad news doesn't tend to have as much impact during these times, while good news can have more effect. Similarly, after a price spike and then subsequent sell-off, sentiment tends to turn bearish, and it is harder for the price to keep up.
Given the timing and trends in the market, as well as news in global financial markets, it seems we are in a bullish phase, which tends to repeat in these cycles. Hopefully that means prices go up from here, but all we need is another Mt.Gox or China ban event to trigger a change in sentiment.
And make no mistake - there will be corrections and sell-offs, regardless of whether the next high is $700 or $7000. There will always be people that buy at or near the peak; use care, manage risk, and don't invest more than you could afford to lose.
Of course it's bad if shopping at a maximum price, ask the user who bought in nov / 2013 to $ 1000, it's been almost 3 years and still losing.
I did make some buys in 2013 when I too was struck by FOMO, at a price of around $800 (CAD). It's taken from then until the last couple of days for those coins to be back at the price I paid for them. I held onto them though, as I believed the price would eventually recover (and I wasn't so hard pressed for cash that I had to sell at a loss).
I prefer to buy and hold, as trading is too much anxiety for me.
That's my strategy too. I average down when and if I can, and otherwise hold them long term. I tried some other trading, but I always lose money at that. Long term the trend has been a slow uptrend, and patience has worked out. Nothing is guaranteed, but trying to buy on the expectation of short term gain is highly risky, despite what anyone might otherwise infer from my charts (or any other charts, for that matter).