Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Yeah, Black Swan's are hard to spot. The internet might have been a lot easier to see. I mean the internet was freedom of information and Bitcoin is a step in the direction of freedom with value transfer. It isn't THE answer, but a step in the right direction.
If we see $10,000 per BTC this year, I would not at all be shocked.
The strange thing is, due to my background in computer science, I get to talk to quite a few relatively intelligent IT guys. 95% of them just don't get it. They understand tech but they can't wrap their heads around it. Trading stocks gave me another perspective and I find that stock traders might take a chance on BTC for obvious reasons, but understanding it is not one of them.
And these same people who wouldn't buy at $200 because it was too high, won't buy at $10,000 just like they won't buy now. It is almost like there is a stop sign in that part of the brain.
its the normalcy bias at play.
poeple have always used dollars to buy and sell shit
you tell them bitcoin aims to displace the dollar, there normalcy bias kicks in and no amount of logic can convince them that things can and will change.
i think its fairly obvious that things MUST change, its a technical impossibility that fiat and the USD will be the reserve currency for ever.
but most poeple can't accept that, in their minds it has always been the USD and it always will be.
they can understand and even appreciate the idea behind bitcoin, but they can't accept that it has any chance of being anything more than a fun experiment.
their close mindedness will make them be part of the 99% that miss out being an early adapter.
these people might encounter bitcoin has a form of payment for there next IT job.
they will accept the job once they realize how easy it is to convert between BTC and Fiat.
they might even start spending some BTC directly for some neweggs stuff sometimes.
they might even see there BTC hodl value during a high inflation year ( -5% on the USD in 2017? maybe!)
but STILL they will not believe BTC can displace their USD
because their brain strongly believes that because somthing has always been it will always be.
I think it is a bit hard of a thing to English. It sounds fine calling it "bias" for this discussion, but I think it is as difficult for many to grasp as other common words we throw around, Love and God come to mind.
We are biased with our money, opinions, etc. But Bias greatly simplifies the depth of this topic.
I basically can agree with you, just saying I think we are getting into the meanings behind words now. And this is an EXTREMELY important topic to understand (cough 1984 cough cough). For just as how we are redefining money, literally, we need to look closely at words that we respect / unconsciously use, and at the same time, imprison us. Take your choice, is it a missile defense shield or nuclear weapons pointed at our enemy. Is it the department of defense or department of war? Is it the CIA or corporate world police? (lol, sorry, couldn't help myself.) Is it propogand or public relations? Not to get political or rather, we need to? Are we along for the ride or creating it?
We need to start paying close attention to our environment as I feel quite strongly, our environment itself is in the midst of a Black Swann.