Wow, certainly some deep discussions going on, which I think is great!  Kinda reminds me of the talks I had with friends many years ago, when over a few beers we'd chat about all kinds of deep things.  Anyway, not to get all sentimental or anything ....

Some good points raised...

Regarding max possible valuation... There are many interesting theories about how high the value could go, and a lot of that depends on how adoption is picked up.  Certainly if a large percentage of the population were to decide it was worthwhile to have some Bitcoin, then the price can reach some of those numbers.  There are also many theories regarding if certainly percentages of other markets were to flow into Bitcoin (gold, offshore holdings, etc.)  Rick Falkvinge did an interesting analysis several years ago about how high the price could be if Bitcoin became the chosen route for many different avenues, including international trade settlement, gambling, etc.  Any of those things becoming a primary use of bitcoin could easily drive the price to the 10's or 100's of thousands of dollars.  However, would they happen?  It makes sense, but certainly the option to "roll your own" is always there.  However, I have to wonder about the effect of the DAO "hack" and what that will do.

To sidetrack for a second, from what I read, the "hack" happened as a result of exploiting an actual rule of the DAO.  Now, I have no investment in Ether or DAO tokens, but I have been watching them with interest.  From the point of view of my analysis, certainly any "distraction" from Bitcoin as the digital currency of choice will slow adoption.  Ethereum is interesting, but is also a dangerous, unproven game.  And I think that has played out in the last few days.  Complex systems are prone to complex bugs, or "features".  Bitcoin has been battle-tested for more than 7 years, and still shines.  Some of the best minds have tried to break it, including Dan Kaminsky, and it held up.  So this certainly argues for trust going with the proven party.  It will be interesting to see where things go from here.  I think a lot of people who don't comprehend the whole industry will latch onto "cryptocurrencies are hackable" as a tagline, and stay away. 

But the numbers are changing.  More and more people are learning about what Bitcoin is and why it should be trusted.  I myself was just blown away by it when I first came across it and knew it had a great future ahead.  Will there be more competing cryptocurrencies in future?  Certainly.  Will the majority of the world's population adopt Bitcoin and/or own some?  I doubt it, at least for a long time, maybe a full generation.   I'm not a millennial myself, but I got it.  However a lot of the older generation, the talking heads on TV and the investment advisers and those with the money, don't and won't get it.  Unfortunately, as it is disruptive tech, many people are hard to move from their old models.  And you don't have to contribute it to conspiracy theories to think that pushback against Bitcoin is real.   There are many people whose actual livelihoods depend on the old models.  And this isn't just journalism or publishing - this is the people with the money and power.  So expect some pushback.

As for Blockstream, I was blown away by the concept of sidechains, and thought this was just the thing to finally do away with most/all of the competing altcoins.  It's simply smart, and I am believing that those implementing it still think highly of Bitcoin.  Nobody knows what the future of Bitcoin will look like, just like they couldn't imagine in 1994 (or earlier) what the Internet would look like in 2016.  Things will grow and evolve... they have to.  It's part of technical evolution.  Unfortunately each time someone tries to completely "replace" Bitcoin, it slows this down.  But that will happen.


Agreed - thanks, Raize, for your input in this thread.  Sorry I didn't address all your points, but I did read your posts!


Thanks!  Made me quite happy today to see 4 digits again in Canada.  Price has been hanging around just under that for many days now, so it was nice to see, even if just briefly.