Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!
by
Luthier
on 20/06/2016, 23:22:31 UTC



Mat, the RSI on your chart is showing massive hidden bull div.  Not saying 790 wasn't the top because level 1 thinking would suggest it is.  But selling needs to pick up in a big way soon to confirm.

No. There is massive bear divergence on the last few sequence of tops, confirmed by the RSI putting in M top structure. Furthermore, that red RSI line (the 'VIP Line'), has proven a critical level for the whole of the pump. Every single leg up, has involved a breach of that line, the only times we have had any sort of correction, has also involved a breach of that line in the opposite direction. I would watch that level like a hawk.

What you are calling 'massive bull divergence', is what they call 'hidden divergence'. I don't pay much attention to hidden divergence.



Lol, thanks for telling me exactly what I wrote.  The point is that the bearish divergence already resolved itself with both price and the RSI making a lower high.  The hidden bullish divergence (signal of trend continuation) has not resolved itself yet.

But divergences aren't everything as we've seen this whole rally.  The trick to Bitcoin trading is actually child's play because the market gives you so many beautiful triangle consolidations.  Trade the triangle breaks = profit.  Stoploss at breakout point in case of a fakeout.  So the correct play was to buy at 455-465, and sell at around 755 when the triangle broke down.  It sounds easy in retrospect but it's exactly what I did so it must not be too hard.

"Buying the dips" or pullbacks is actually not the best strategy in a rally like this because the price never reaches your targets, until it blows past them as the bubble pops.