I think Portugal got really lucky on the playoffs path. All the top teams (France, Germany, Spain, Italy, England) are on the other side until final, so in theory Portugal and Belgium have very good odds of reaching finals and then anything can happen I think.
I don't know why you neglect Poland and Croatia who are two very good teams. 
I agree
Poland and Croatia are better than many favorites. i do not want to make bets against team like this
no more surprises