FYI, I agree with your evaluation but I'm uncertain about the timeline. Doing the math, buying ASIC's yourself gives you a better GH/$ ratio(3-4x at this price) but is not practical for my situation, and I think your 6mo timeline is a bit aggressive. Obviously I can hope, but, I've worked out conservative timelines that work for me and my long-horizon view, hence my bidding.
Thanks for running this auction though; I look forward to closing the transaction soon.
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Thanks for running this auction though; I look forward to closing the transaction soon.
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With my remaining holdings in ASICMINER I am naturally biased.
No doubt buying an ASIC right now would be the better choice (hell, Jeff's Avalon paid off after 10 days or so) - but getting one is a different story. I am waiting for my BFL since half a year and spent countless hours getting into Avalon's second batch (not getting in plus loosing quite some coins moving funds into WalletBit and back).
That's why the key factor for success right now is neither $/GH nor J/GH, but solely the availability of ASICs. 8 months ago I tried to grab and keep 1% of network hashrate based on FPGA mining devices, but failed due to Spartan6 getting out-of-stock or too expensive. Bitfountain is in a different position today: they can add hashpower at will at prices miners can't compete with (unless other manufacturers start self-mining).
With the projected 12TH first batch (already confirmed: 2.5TH BTC-guild + ~0.5TH ozcoin + ...) ASICMINER holds 30% of network. It will take them 14 days to make the 0.1BTC initial dividend. After this first payment and as long as BFL and Avalon do not penetrate the mining market significantly, they make 0.1BTC per share per month. Given that 40% of that income is invested in the next batch or 50TH mining HW, chances are not all too bad to get back 0.4BTC per share within half a year.
But what am I trying to convince you, you already do believe
All the best and Good Luck,
zefir