According to Jihan Wu, who controls Antpool (25% of global hashrate), there won't be any live segwit without a HF blocksize increase for 2017 activation.
So we get both! (or neither) Cool!
[img ]http://i.imgur.com/S89dQkA.png[/img]
This is very good, and is very important that he holds his ground. Bitcoin is in desperate need of a max block size increase, and as long as the blockstream core devs hold a veto card for any HF, it will be difficult to get a max block size increase without withholding support for something that the blockstream core devs need.