Dollar rally still ahead (Q4 2016?), and possible lower lows in gold and corrections in crypto-currencies:
Many comments and emails are pouring in that our model correctly forecast BREXIT years in advance. Here is the picture for the next big chaos period the US Presidential Election in November. You can see that 3 out of 4 models show a Republican victory.
Quote from: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/usd/its-not-the-british-its-the-eu/
which warns that everything can flip against the EU come early July. We have also been warning of a coming dollar rally that will make the dollar bears noses bleed from vertigo. The critical monthly closing support remains at 13660 in the cash pound against the dollar. A June closing beneath this level will confirm the dollar rally is beginning in a broader trend.
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Things will be moving into August/September. June was a Directional Change and that seems to have been on target along with our computers forecast years in advance.
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August looks to be rather chaotic. We should begin to see other countries move more rapidly for referendums. As this process begins, we should begin to see the realization that the euro is in crisis; not the pound.
We can see that the Yearly Bearish we elected at the 116 level at year-end 2015 has proven to be dramatic. We rallied back to retest the 116 level, which took a little longer, but it has fallen sharply and we can see the trend is in motion for a big dollar rally.
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Things will be moving into August/September. June was a Directional Change and that seems to have been on target along with our computers forecast years in advance.
...
August looks to be rather chaotic. We should begin to see other countries move more rapidly for referendums. As this process begins, we should begin to see the realization that the euro is in crisis; not the pound.
We can see that the Yearly Bearish we elected at the 116 level at year-end 2015 has proven to be dramatic. We rallied back to retest the 116 level, which took a little longer, but it has fallen sharply and we can see the trend is in motion for a big dollar rally.
Quote from: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/the-reversal-phenomenon/
QUESTION: Marty; I have been reading your blog on gold and get all your reports. One things that I have notices was this 1206 number. Back in 2013, it was important back then. Here it showed up again in 2015. This seems to be an amazing number. Can you explain why.
ANSWER: Today, it seems to be 1206. True, it was appearing in 2013 and now again it has emerged once again. It has now become a Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Bearish. So it is migrating to more levels in time. I am not entirely sure that we can predict if such numbers in advance will be the ones to reappear time and again. It is a phenomenon that warrants more investigation. Since this model is physics based it is complex. Sometimes it will produce a high or low precisely or within a few ticks. The Monthly Bullish from the December low has remained unchanged at $1362. We warned back on February 11 that $1362 was the top of the range for gold that it had to exceed: The Monthly Bullish stands up at 1362. That is what we need to elect to suggest that a change in trend is possible.
It is fascinating to watch the precision within markets. I always have to laugh when people try to attack me in the same manner as other analysts, claiming I am wrong for one reason or another when these numbers are not what I think and they are certainly not my opinion. They simply exist within any market.
ANSWER: Today, it seems to be 1206. True, it was appearing in 2013 and now again it has emerged once again. It has now become a Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Bearish. So it is migrating to more levels in time. I am not entirely sure that we can predict if such numbers in advance will be the ones to reappear time and again. It is a phenomenon that warrants more investigation. Since this model is physics based it is complex. Sometimes it will produce a high or low precisely or within a few ticks. The Monthly Bullish from the December low has remained unchanged at $1362. We warned back on February 11 that $1362 was the top of the range for gold that it had to exceed: The Monthly Bullish stands up at 1362. That is what we need to elect to suggest that a change in trend is possible.
It is fascinating to watch the precision within markets. I always have to laugh when people try to attack me in the same manner as other analysts, claiming I am wrong for one reason or another when these numbers are not what I think and they are certainly not my opinion. They simply exist within any market.
Many comments and emails are pouring in that our model correctly forecast BREXIT years in advance. Here is the picture for the next big chaos period the US Presidential Election in November. You can see that 3 out of 4 models show a Republican victory.
I'm not sure if anyone has posted this, but this is what he wrote on June 17th in his private blog @ ask-socrates.com:
"The Dow reacted strong back from the brink, but it was not quite strong enough just yet. The Weekly Bullish now stands at 17915 and the Weekly Bearish is 17580 on our minor model. The Daily Bullish Reversal stands at 17900 and the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 17437.
We do have a Minor Monthly Bearish at 17579 and a June closing beneath 17790 will indicate the market is still positioned neutrally. This is the same number showing up on indicators for the Quarterly timing level. A June closing beneath 17037 will signal a break to retest the support perhaps creating a September low.
To imply a breakout requires a June closing above 18137.50 to hint that we may run into a September high crossing the 20,000 level."
For me the way I interpreted this was to short the market under the assumption that we would either elect those reversals or come very near to electing them (basically viewing them as a target), and hold over the weekend if it looked like the numbers were going to be elected as Friday came to a close. On late Friday afternoon we were still well below his weekly reversal of 17580, so I held UVXY and sold it today over 16$. That's over a 40% profit.
The reason I sold is because I expect the DOW to rise back up to test his Minor Monthly Bearish reversals @ 17579 by Thursday, and because common sense simply tells me that markets tend to consolidate after big swings like that. Holding over the weekend was somewhat risky (I hate holding over the weekend), but according to his 1% rule (which basically says the narrower you elect the reversal by, the stronger the signal) I was relatively safe to assume there would be a little bit more energy pushing the market slightly lower on Monday's opening.
This worked perfectly for me, so I'm really having trouble understanding all the scepticism here. Martin's reversal system seems to work.
Quote
"The Dow reacted strong back from the brink, but it was not quite strong enough just yet. The Weekly Bullish now stands at 17915 and the Weekly Bearish is 17580 on our minor model. The Daily Bullish Reversal stands at 17900 and the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 17437.
We do have a Minor Monthly Bearish at 17579 and a June closing beneath 17790 will indicate the market is still positioned neutrally. This is the same number showing up on indicators for the Quarterly timing level. A June closing beneath 17037 will signal a break to retest the support perhaps creating a September low.
To imply a breakout requires a June closing above 18137.50 to hint that we may run into a September high crossing the 20,000 level."
For me the way I interpreted this was to short the market under the assumption that we would either elect those reversals or come very near to electing them (basically viewing them as a target), and hold over the weekend if it looked like the numbers were going to be elected as Friday came to a close. On late Friday afternoon we were still well below his weekly reversal of 17580, so I held UVXY and sold it today over 16$. That's over a 40% profit.
The reason I sold is because I expect the DOW to rise back up to test his Minor Monthly Bearish reversals @ 17579 by Thursday, and because common sense simply tells me that markets tend to consolidate after big swings like that. Holding over the weekend was somewhat risky (I hate holding over the weekend), but according to his 1% rule (which basically says the narrower you elect the reversal by, the stronger the signal) I was relatively safe to assume there would be a little bit more energy pushing the market slightly lower on Monday's opening.
This worked perfectly for me, so I'm really having trouble understanding all the scepticism here. Martin's reversal system seems to work.