If there is already a post about this can someone point me there? I could not find one. So anyway, am I right or wrong in saying-
1. the new ASIC chips are shipping next month
2. they are guaranteed to drive up difficulty
3. difficulty going up is guaranteed to drive bitcoin value up
4. investing in bitcoin before March with the intent of selling it back within a couple months has a very high porbibility of being profitable.
Thoughts?
Yes, you are wrong.
Now would be ab bad time to invest in something like a gpu graphics card to use as a bitcoin miner. But ASIC miners should not have much overall affect on the price of bitcoins.
1. There are already ASIC chips mining. A specific company might be shipping large amounts of ASICS next month.
2. Yes, difficulty will rise dramatically.
3. Difficulty rising only raises the value of bitcoins because it means the network is more secure, At this point the network is already secure enough that attacking it would be difficult, so while rising difficulty is good it will only have a small affect. (The law of diminishing returns)
4. The aforementioned facts do not support the conclusion that there is a "high probability" that buying bitcoins will be profitable over the next few months. Bitcoins are still a risky investment. The price has risen dramatically over the past couple months, so there is a large probability that the price will go back down some amount or stay steady.