My guess is the halving itself will be quite non-eventful
The last time there was not much movement in price. There was just a lot of talk.
Price on the day of halving went from about $12.20 to $12.35.
Exactly one year later the price was over $1,100.you are forgetting to mention that btc was pumped by the gox and silk road guys . silk road got busted and the feds got gox"s coins used to pump btc stored at silk road .. and you know the rest of the story .