If Chinese miners are really out of patience with Core delays the only way you will see it is a drastic increase in Classic nodes in July after the halving. Then Core either forks or the miners will do it for them with Classic. If this is a game of chicken I bet the core devs blink first and decide to hard fork to 2 MB. No one likes to have power taken away from them.
In either outcome supposedly in your scenarios they would lose power.
Not sure if that was your point.
Full disclosure: I'm on no specific side but the side of bitcoin, as things play out in either direction.