Back to the topic: I think that at some point all the willing investors will fulfil their desire to buy bitcoins (especially because the price of bitcoins is going up too much) and at some point the trend will invert itself and because of it with the help of some panic sell the price of bitcoins might go under the reasonable value
This brings new questions to mind: When is this desire first fulfilled (market capitalization)? Why would investors (not just traders speculating on BTC/fiat-exchange rate) heavily sell if Bitcoin's still the "best" currency? Wouldn't traders reinvest if exchange rate falls below "the reasonable value"?
-we've got "pure bitcoin-based" multi-million dollar businesses (silkroad, satoshiDICE, mtGox,...)
Ah, yes, the multi-million dollar businesses: a black market and a casino. Yeah, that historically always went well. No really, it did, except for those that got their brains bashed in or got sunk in the Hudson or gunned down in the street. But: there's always new blood to take up the slack.
Damn you make these examples sound bad
Of course you'll make the fastest money in branches which are normally strongly regulated. "Conventional stuff" will follow: ASICMINER+Bitfountain should be worth a few million at current exchange rates and I think there are others as well.If any first-world government decides to flex their legal muscles to shut down exchanges, that will kill off the adoption rate and at the very least cause bitcoin usage to stagnate.
Sounds like a very real threat. Banks/the government could accuse every exchange of terrorism and money laundry. Don't have any knowledge regarding this, can it really be done so easily?