I wouldn't be sure that solo mining is the way to go, unless you are an extremely patient person.

Put your expected numbers in here: http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/old_calculator.php - note that this also doesn't take inevitable increases in difficulty into account.

If you are set on solo mining, you'll want to run bitcoind with the -server flag (`./bitcoind -server`). Then you'll be able to set the host in your miner to localhost. Then once you have set your rpcuser and rpcpassword in ~/.bitcoin/bitcoin.conf you should be able to connect to your local bitcoin server. I'd give you some wiki links, but the wiki is throwing a 403 at the moment (https://bitcoin.it/).

Good luck!