So if you base your beliefs on how much money is spent, if you believe in ASICMiner, clearly you should believe in BFL as well.
I am not basing my beliefs on how much money is spent, but what was promised. I simply dont get the maths behind producing 60ghs for ~1000 USD.
But this is exactly what ASICMiner has produced - and you believe them! 12 Thash/s divided by $200-300k IPO = 60-40 Ghash/s per $1k
You can say that ASICMiner could do it because their 130nm process is cheaper than BFL's 65nm, but BFL is financing themselves with prior FPGA profits, and by manufacturing a lot more chips to recoup the higher NRE - by all estimates they have 100-200 Thash/s of preorders...
Anyway we are getting off-topic here.
You are simply not getting my line of thinking nor do I get yours. Time will tell. So far, people who payed for asic are screwed. Even when they get them, its for fun, no ROI. As I said, I dont worry for myself, I have made money on btc mining, that my shop makes in 2 years, so I can pass on asics. But people who payed hard cash on it and are sitting empty handed, I dont think they are happy about it.