Post
Topic
Board Service Discussion
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
by
dooglus
on 24/02/2013, 19:38:56 UTC
I'll add monthly profit, expected dividend, etc. to the report soon.

Someone hit 'lessthan 1' for the first time yesterday: http://www.satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=a874d43fb31c3a0785a6828006136c6d3a3cb79c3c19fe4c7caf770f42c6a3c7

Bet Amount: 0.02000000
Outcome: WIN
Payment: 1279.99950000

Just wow!  Bet $0.60, win $38,400.

Quote
Total of 98 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Feb-24 11:31am (up to block 222904)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    87651 |       1 (0.00001) |   86241 |    1409 |     986.68 |    1280.01 |   117.42 |   -293.33 | 129.730
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     4431 |       0 (0.00000) |    3921 |     510 |      74.91 |       0.01 |    18.54 |     74.89 |   0.019
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     6766 |       1 (0.00016) |    6334 |     431 |     102.14 |     159.98 |    11.48 |    -57.84 | 156.628
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     9416 |       4 (0.00045) |    8980 |     432 |     155.73 |     255.99 |    10.04 |   -100.25 | 164.379
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    11914 |       1 (0.00009) |   11487 |     426 |     402.25 |       4.77 |    22.05 |    397.47 |   1.188
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    14157 |       5 (0.00036) |   13754 |     398 |     798.96 |     733.71 |     1.38 |     65.24 |  91.834
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    16572 |      17 (0.00105) |   16119 |     436 |    1217.60 |     351.74 |    55.75 |    865.86 |  28.888
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    18035 |      33 (0.00188) |   17561 |     441 |    2223.30 |    1422.51 |    48.33 |    800.78 |  63.982
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    23100 |     104 (0.00458) |   22615 |     381 |    4438.88 |    7354.05 |    13.18 |  -2915.17 | 165.674
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    31680 |     250 (0.00807) |   30737 |     693 |    5615.32 |    5625.72 |    10.01 |    -10.39 | 100.185
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   105821 |    1631 (0.01548) |  103721 |     469 |   30085.65 |   25201.81 |     1.99 |   4883.83 |  83.767
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    23126 |     538 (0.02363) |   22234 |     354 |    7523.42 |    8066.80 |    15.08 |   -543.38 | 107.223
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    64730 |    2005 (0.03116) |   62334 |     391 |   31048.02 |   27581.82 |     9.34 |   3466.20 |  88.836
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    25982 |    1179 (0.04613) |   24379 |     424 |    9053.86 |    9937.03 |    25.14 |   -883.16 | 109.755
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    31707 |    1921 (0.06132) |   29406 |     380 |    7457.49 |    7304.67 |    31.32 |    152.82 |  97.951
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    42064 |    3861 (0.09271) |   37785 |     418 |   15733.22 |   17506.88 |     7.21 |  -1773.66 | 111.273
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   163432 |   20008 (0.12278) |  142950 |     474 |   84343.97 |   84138.62 |   100.36 |    205.34 |  99.757
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    80183 |   14662 (0.18403) |   65011 |     510 |  163373.23 |  165273.34 |  3314.82 |  -1900.11 | 101.163
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   213225 |   51846 (0.24375) |  160854 |     525 |  355777.05 |  341025.28 |  2056.31 |  14751.77 |  95.854
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   212654 |   78165 (0.36853) |  133933 |     556 |  569341.06 |  560916.32 |  1013.13 |   8424.73 |  98.520
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1041411 |  507535 (0.48806) |  532376 |    1500 |  840233.35 |  821830.26 |  2924.45 |  18403.08 |  97.810
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   525319 |  262024 (0.49972) |  262318 |     977 |  633812.46 |  619586.66 |  5720.72 |  14225.80 |  97.756
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   306361 |  224875 (0.73540) |   80911 |     575 |  288921.86 |  282003.32 |  5455.02 |   6918.53 |  97.605
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    67918 |   53595 (0.79444) |   13868 |     455 |   59060.09 |   57763.16 |  1187.29 |   1296.93 |  97.804
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    52091 |   44173 (0.85640) |    7407 |     511 |   71994.94 |   71546.70 |   400.39 |    448.23 |  99.377
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    79002 |   71949 (0.91641) |    6563 |     490 |   66794.86 |   66090.92 |     0.34 |    703.93 |  98.946
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    15131 |   13943 (0.97997) |     285 |     903 |   23485.59 |   23078.23 |   239.89 |    407.35 |  98.265
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3165683 | 1303922           | 1846581 |   15180 |  713473.15 |  700334.58 |   248.42 |  13138.56 |  98.159
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   108196 |   50404           |   57503 |     289 | 2560582.86 | 2505705.87 | 22562.70 |  54876.98 |  97.857
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3273879 | 1354326           | 1904084 |   15469 | 3274056.01 | 3206040.46 | 22811.12 |  68015.55 |  97.923
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      68015.55215423 BTC (2.077%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        2473.86667500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       65541.68547923 BTC (2.002%)
Pending Liabilities:           -6.77219389 BTC
Final SD Profit:            65548.45767312 BTC (2.002%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 10446658  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  6032263  (57.7%)
Blockchain MB:   4468.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2476.3  (55.4%)