A smart gambler will have a strategy of when to bet small and when to bet big. However the most plausible outcome is that you will lose
I don't think there is any smart way to place bet on any match, look what happened in Euro 2016 all safer sides lost their matches consistently, gambling depend on the player's luck so if he has lucky day than surely he will pick a very good option and will get huge profit with it.
No, in sports betting analysis in trends does not usually guarantee you to win. Heavy favorites usually lose because betting the public is the profitable method.
I believe that there is no smart way in gambling even you are going to play smart with it but if the house is already programmed to win.
Then you are just wasting your efforts.
So instead of putting your money into gambling it is better to start trading.