@iamnotback: As you pointed out earlier, short term speculation is still viable by just holding liquid STEEM. It is the mid-term of for example 3-18 months that is somewhat shut out by the model. I don't know how much that particularly timescale matters, but maybe it does.
But i guess smooth was saying that indirectly too with the very risky part.
Without getting too deeply into the details of what you can sell when exactly, which I don't think change the decision all that much (you would need a crystal ball to know exact timing), clearly it does not make sense to buy SP if you don't think the investment is viable beyond a year or two (or more precisely that the upside sufficiently compensates for that risk)