How many STEEM clones will there be in 6 months?
My guess is more than 1, perhaps as many as 5. Maybe make that 9 - 12 months though, unless you expect half-baked ones.
How many will have a better launch?
All of them.
Can those clones benefit from STEEM hype?
Yes, but probably less so after the first clone and declining from there, unless the first clone is done very poorly.
Does STEEM have any network effect?
Yes some. But it is not clear if it is well maximized. That the blockchain is not even forkable, means it is not really open source. Closed systems tend to discourage some of network effects, because parties are not as confident that the system can be forked and modified as necessary.
Also the large "pre"-mine may cause many sectors to question whether they should invest in this blockchain or wait for a fairly launched clone.
How many crypto people would like to be insiders in a STEEM clone?
I think most would be more contented to join the best clone than to go try to pump their own.
Of course some devs will try to pump a clone even though they don't really have the resources and commitment to make it successful, but I think the market will choose the one that is the most serious and has the best development resources behind it and is making the most progress in the market. That could be Steem. Well for the moment, it is Steem as it is the only one.