It's an astonishing sight for sure... I don't think I've ever seen anything like this before. I almost sold a few hundred dash and purchased a few thousand ETC yesterday (as a longshot punt with good odds) just because my fundamental view is that it boils down to a simple equation:

Ethereum universe = 100% support
Ethereum Hard Fork support supposedly 45%
Ethereum 65% against

* these numbers are all subjective but based on the Miner vote results (the results that matter). Some say that the community voted in favour somewhere in the region of 85% for and 15% against, although I have no empirical evidence of this (?).

Therefore ETC value would logically be 65% of pre-fork value of the whole. Circa $700m. At the time it's market cap was somewhere around the $50m mark. Even if we take the community vote numbers of 15% support we reach a value of around $150m, a healthy profit even at that level. My best guess is that we'll end up somewhere in the middle, such is the nature of game theory as stalemate sets in. My logic is clearly based on the assumption that 'value' and 'hash rates' are very much correlated and if 100% of the miners created a $1bn market cap then whatever percentage move over to ETC will 'take' that value with them.


By my logic purchasing ETC at levels of yesterday evening was a bet with little downside... But I sat on my hands because I don't gamble and - more importantly - it looked too good to be true...! So I figured I'd missed something in my calculations... Either way, for once it's one of those rare occasions where the market completely miss-prices an asset. It doesn't happen very often and rarely by such a large amount.

What do you make of it all OTOH? Kept your hands in your pockets?

Cheers

Walter