In best case Factom can grow and grow for years. If that should happen nobody will know when to sell.
Yeah, aside from saying FCT is underpriced atm, I think it's hard to tell what would be a more accurate market cap, actually. At what point would FCT be overbought? I have my sell orders beginning at several multiples the current price, but have been going through an inner debate, trying to think honestly about FCT's long-term potential, and even those sell orders might be too low. Hmm. I guess this is to say that I don't think FCT "price discovery" has happened in a meaningful way yet. Curious to see what happens when people ultimately catch on.
I realize this may seem overly optimistic to some, but my own estimate about a more reasonable, post-discovery market cap is in the 500m - 1b range. Curious what others think ...? 50m? 5b? What happens when everyone knows about FCT?
Until now and also for some time in the future, the price is just a result of that what I call a psychological market. It's betting on the future. Some bet for longterm, some for a week or just 24 hours. But with a longterm-focus it's possible to think in objective future scenarios from worst-case to very optimistic and to do that with different calculations about possible demand-scenarios.
But in any case the psychological market always will play a role. And for the past since launch and until now and also the next time, it's only about that. So it's always about the reactions of Investors/Speculators/Traders etc. Some of them, the minority, is longterm-focused. The minority already has made enough research to understand Factom. A minority understands that a lack of short-term-signals is not a bad sign if it's seen in the context of all the good signs we get for longterm. But to see that it also needs research, and to follow Factom.
Compared with other projects Factom did not get much attention etc. And exactly that is also seen as bad sign while it is in fact potential - room to grow if, again: focus on the context. Safe to say is: It won't be boring. We constantly got good news in the past. That also had an increasing dynamic and I believe it will continue to increase. But because there is not that much attention, the price doesn't react like a rocket how it would be in some other projects. Imagine Ethereum and DHS or Ethereum and Smart Cities. That would be like an explosion (subtract the DAO mess and the HF for now
) Will the increasing tendency stop? Just if Factom should fall into sleep - and that won't happen. It's much more likely that attention and identification will increase very sharp at some point - and the price would follow and hype.
The question than would be again: Is it overbought? In relation to demand at that time it's safe to say: yes. But for the future after M3 and when it gets traction? I don't believe that. The potential is extreme in my opinion.
And a few minutes ago I've started the new video with Tiana Laurence:
IDC Q2 2016 S4 Disruptive Infrastructure Solutions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_gPYSaZAfE&feature=youtu.be&t=15m45s
After seeing the first minutes I believe it's damn cheap right now. I'm not sure how to interpret something she says there. That's why I won't make guesses here right now. But there is something that is interesting.