In a short-term split, one of the networks soon realizes that it has virtually no support at all. Everyone is using the other currency. Due to the network effect, even those who prefer the protocol of Bitcoin A will be unable to use it. After a few days or a few weeks, even the supporters of Bitcoin A will abandon it, and reluctantly start using Bitcoin B. Bitcoin A will die, and Bitcoin B the network which has an economic majority will emerge as the one true Bitcoin.
In a medium-term split, both networks have significant support and they coexist for a while. But after several months or years, it becomes apparent that the protocol of Bitcoin A is problematic. It doesnt function as well as the network of Bitcoin B, and over time, people switch from one to the other. Here, too, Bitcoin B will ultimately emerge as the one true Bitcoin.
In a long-term split, neither of the networks is clearly superior. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages, and each has its supporters and preferred use cases. This will result in two different currencies, that will coexist indefinitely, which were both spawned from the same original coin.
to highlight this.
miners will not split bitcoin unless there was a high consensus (nodes AND hashpower) to ensure their block attempts wont automatically get orphaned by other pools or users. also they would need to ensure their "fiat exit gateway" (exchange) also is ready to accept the version..
this means that bitcoin will have a majority choosing the split before the split even happens.. this automatically makes it a short term split before it even happens.
from reading details. miners will look at the network and see how many nodes are using the code. the miners(pools) will then create blocks that are flagged to highlight the miners desires to go with a split..(at 75%)
this is then a big neon glowing and flashing sign that more users should upgrade their nodes and merchants to make a decision.
again this is all happening before the split has even happened.
then at around 90% plus they will split.
this would leave the minority split with only 10% hashrate which (using some real world stats) actually results in the minority split only making a block once every couple hours, instead of 10 minutes.
(its not a block every 100minutes either, its actually longer)meaning not only will the minority chain be one block each 2 hours =1008 hours (42 days) before the difficulty adjusts
but every 2 hours only ~2500tx are added to a minority block but with 2 hours of users transactions filling up the mempool.. causing a massive fee war of 40k tx's trying to be next in line for space of 2500, then next 2 hours 75,000 tx fighting for a space of 2500.. 2 hours later 112,500tx trying to fight for a space of 2500
meaning in just 6 hours the fee war will disincentive people from using the minority split. both due to delays, headachs of rebroadcasting and higher fees
ethereum is different because it has no real world use now the DAO cannot be trusted.. you cant buy real world goods with it. so most people dont use ethereum to care about the logistics and dont see the issues in the same way bitcoin would
you cannot compare ethers split with bitcoins possible split.. its like comparing a butterfly flapping its wings that effects nothing in the real world and left to flutter about for as long as it wants to live.. and a tornado that can see things moving very fast and make people make fast decisions that will affect them