We are already bumping up against a limit. No simulation needed. We have reality instead ...
OK, wrong word. Still I hope that most pools will not immediately lift / increase their limit. So we know what will happen when we reach the hard limit, which can't be changed so easily.
So let us bump against this for a few month. And lift it only if it really damages Bitcoin.
Yes, this is the right approach. Solve the problem now soft way, rather than later hard way.
I think the solution should be increasing both tx fees and max block size. The network should not discriminate against users based on who they are (e.g. SatoshiDice). If it's possible to flood the network with cheap transactions then the fees are simply too low and should be increased. Also miners should be less dependent on generating coins and more on receiving fees. When the fee is "about right" and blocks are getting full then increase max block size. It should be such so that average Joe can still run his full node or a miner.