With no exponential run before that? Pinpointing a price during a time when I think we'll be perhaps the most volatile is hard, but I'll go with $26,500.

Elwar, have you read the Efficient Market Hypothesis and anything of Mandelbrot? I don't think the markets are efficient or follow rational distribution 100% of the time. The standard deviation was 27 on the stock market crash in 1987. People are very prone to being irrational, both when markets are doing well and when they start to crash. I think we're no more than four years removed from the next major Bitcoin price event that will be quite irrational, and let's be honest, we're likely to see moves that are similarly if not suspiciously irrational before then as well, just like the rise from $5 in early 2012 to $15 in August 2012 was. In fact, if I had to put us anywhere on a cycle, it would be the equivalent of the Fall/Winter of 2012, just around the time of the last halvening.

It remains to be seen if we'll see new mining equipment that could exponentialize the growth over the course of 2017, but as I have commented in other threads, a market cap of single-digit billions for what Bitcoin already is claimed to be is paltry.