Did you read my explanation? It is all to do with the way the cracks in the glass have spread. If you follow the way the cracks spread from each hole, you can see that some of the cracks are "stopped" by other cracks... Logically, this means that the crack that STOPS the 2nd crack was already there.

The best example is the one going vertically up from #3. It looks like it runs into the crack from #2 (that is running, more or less, from left to right) and stops. Logically, this would mean the crack from #2 was already there, so hole #2 was made before #3.

The same happens with the little short crack from #1, travelling to the left... it is "stopped" by the crack coming down vertically from #2. Therefore, #2 was before #1. This means it must have been the first one, because it was before both #1 and #3.

You're reading WAY too much into the puzzle with your comments about bullet types and recoil etc.