G.ASICMINER-PT ฿0.74900000
Check the volume. But yes, GIGAMINING also IPOd at 1, went to 1.5 or thereabouts and then went nowhere. Maybe this is the general scheme of mining bubbles, go up 50% on the frenzy and then go to nothing. The good news is that there are a lot less BTC in the hands of the easily excitable today than there were last April.
Think you're misunderstanding something. The IPO was on GLBSE at 0.1 per share. I think the chance of the price falling below that is pretty small and pretty much zero for it falling below that before all shares have received at least 0.1 in dividends.
Based on short-term mining I get a value of around .2-.35 per share : not too far off from your own (once you double yours for you error on the 400k shares and add on .04 for the higher dividends until 0.1 is reached).
Now if that were the only value of the share then the price would obviosuly drop as dividends were paid. But the ability to produce more batches of the ASICs at minimal cost adds rather a lot more to the long-term value. And assuming they learn from the various fuck-ups made this time, owning a portion of income from future ASIC development they do has to add some value to the shares as well. As does the potential to sell units to the public (though I'm dubious whether they'll be in a position to do this before demand drops a load).
As for shorting - I'll be interested to see how that turns out. I can see scenarios where it'll turn out to be a brilliant move (e.g. the ASICs only have a life-span of a few months) and ones where it could turn out to be a disaster (imagine shorting it then BFL's units only have a life-span of a week). Keep us all posted on any significant shorts that happen.