It's a fine line.  I am relatively clever, and rather idiosyncratically creative, so as long as I retain discipline I can reason relatively well, and derive some confidence in surprising results.  Training sometimes permits me to produce principled derivations with credible intervals. I don't know what's going to happen, but I know what I want to happen is fairly close to what I predict will happen - close enough to derive a statistical edge.  That alignment is why I am in Monero.  The difference between the two is the degree of vision vs. dream.  As long as I can discriminate between the two, I'm okay.

 I've been through enough market cycles of manic euphoria and depressive malaise to be partially immunized, at least, but not totally.  I kept buying through the long night, but I couldn't bring myself to post much then.  The malaise is demotivating, and I wouldn't want to spread it.  Spreading a little of the euphoria isn't too terribly bad, as long as it is balanced with prudent mitigating considerations. I don't usually post when I have a negative outlook since discouraging holders just hurts everyone, for the most part.  But if I don't post, that's only one possible reason, so don't infer that I have a negative outlook.  I'm not quite as uber as it may appear, but pretty close.

All of that is pretty self-involved.  But knowing your strengths and weaknesses is crucial to controlling for them, and hence to success.  In investing and trading alike: My worst weakness is emotion; my best strength is patience.  That is probably true for most people.  Vision undergirds patience.  Bullish AF.

In other news:  I am looking at you, litecoin.  There is no escape.