I did a little research, because mostly this price surge is argumented with DNM's getting in the currency, which i still do not believe.
On Alphabay in median 1,9% 2737 are accepting XMR in drugs and chemicals from total 136877.
On Oasis in median 6,9% 264 are accepting XMR in drugs and chemicals from total 3813.
The last 0,018 hype on polo had over 100kBTC volume, with now residing somewhere at 0,014 with ~24kBTC volume.
So if 3001 vendors are responsible for over 100kBTC volume, every vendor in median had to have ~33BTC for playing wiht XMR, now somewhat around ~8BTC each if every vendor is actively trading --> possible but not likely.
Why, simply because these 100BTC to 800BTC buy walls would to have been built, in median, buy more than one vendor at the same time --> possible but not likely.
Even if, let's say 10% of the active vendors are actively trading with the new XMR (multiply the figures buy 10) which i still do not believe, this would be more unlikely to happen at the same time on the same place. The lending figures intensify my claim and theory of a single entity playing around and making the market to the contrary argument of "natural" growth
Think about it
On Alphabay in median 1,9% 2737 are accepting XMR in drugs and chemicals from total 136877.
On Oasis in median 6,9% 264 are accepting XMR in drugs and chemicals from total 3813.
The last 0,018 hype on polo had over 100kBTC volume, with now residing somewhere at 0,014 with ~24kBTC volume.
So if 3001 vendors are responsible for over 100kBTC volume, every vendor in median had to have ~33BTC for playing wiht XMR, now somewhat around ~8BTC each if every vendor is actively trading --> possible but not likely.
Why, simply because these 100BTC to 800BTC buy walls would to have been built, in median, buy more than one vendor at the same time --> possible but not likely.
Even if, let's say 10% of the active vendors are actively trading with the new XMR (multiply the figures buy 10) which i still do not believe, this would be more unlikely to happen at the same time on the same place. The lending figures intensify my claim and theory of a single entity playing around and making the market to the contrary argument of "natural" growth
Think about it
It is pretty obvious to everybody the hype we had 1 week ago was due to speculators or "market makers" (depending on which term you prefer).
However, the fact is vendors are now using XMR which creates natural demand which will eventually have a positive impact on the price. I am not expecting that by 23.59 1st of sept all the vendors are 100 % in xmr. That is delusional IMO. Let's give some time, few months, a couple years perhaps and see how high it ends up.