Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation

I've seen a handful of people mentioning the possibility of XMR overtaking BTC. Is this just XMR fever talking, or is there some rational basis for this argument?

I see the odds of XMR overtaking BTC being close to nil. That said, I believe there's a high probability it could be a strong 2nd, overtaking LTC as BTC's "silver".

I'm certainly not going to say it will. But I will say there is a rational reason to expect that it might.

Bitcoin was supposed to be digital e-cash. Cash has to be fungible. Monero is the best fungible digital e-cash contender out there right now. The day people start to worry about whether the funds they are being paid in are tainted. They start to feel that sense of creeping dread that maybe that 20 grand they just accepted as payment for their car could be worthless. That is the day they switch to XMR in mass. Unless bitcoin manages to overcome the politics that are burdening it and find a solution to this problem. Which they might.

Won't confidential transaction solve the problem of fungibility of bitcoins?

No unlinkability and untracability. It improves privacy at the individual transaction level if and when it is ever deployed, but coin histories, tracking, and taint remain.

To put it another way, Monero is adding CT to what we already have (with RingCT), we are not replacing what we already have with CT. That would be a step backward.