Well, I don't think the obvious get-rich-quick mentality you're showing is at all helpful, but yes, it's *possible*. It's also possible that you'll lose all, or nearly all, of your money.

But let's do some back-of-the-napkin math.

In my opinion, a longrun rational stable equilibrium in the crypto-economy would have Monero as the #2 coin (since a protocol-level privacy-focused coin is one of the very few niches bitcoin will likely never address, and Monero is the best privacy coin). And let's say that the #2 coin will have at least an order of magnitude less total purchasing power than bitcoin.

We'll therefore define the 2yr success-case for Monero as being that it takes the #2 slot, and that the #2 slot is 1/20th Bitcoin's value. We'll further say that Bitcoin has the same market-cap as today (~$4B.....I think it's likely to be more in reality, but let's be a little "safe" with this analysis).

That gives Monero a 2yr success-case market-cap of $200M. There will be about 14,250,000 XMR outstanding at the time, yielding a $ price per XMR of around $14.

1 XMR = $0.53 today. So the success case is about a 2600% return.

Thus, if you think there's greater than a 1/26 = 3.8% chance of Monero becoming the #2 coin (and ignoring opportunity cost, personal risk profile, interest rates, etc), then it's rational to consider XMR undervalued today.


Obviously you should do your own analysis and figure out what values make sense to you. The above is just a rough framework that makes sense to me.


[Sidenote: this is reminding me of the initial calcs I did with bitcoin years ago. FWIW, in 2011 my lowest "success-case" estimate for bitcoin was $1500. Getting there... ]