This thread really gets a person thinking about TIMING for making a significant move. I bought a few more coins early this year and felt like I over paid, remembering how they bottom'd out last summer 2015. I ended up pleasantly surprised. I find I am now gaining more confidence that BTC can weather the ups and downs that happen every year. I am pretty confident that a long range thinker is in a good industry. You just have to resist the urge to "bolt" on the down cycles by looking at the history of the coin.
I think this is a common dilemma faced by most people, not just newbies, I know I often can't decide if it's a 'good time' to buy or not lol. Everyone wants to buy at the lowest price possible and it's not fun to buy only to see the price drop by $100 a few days later. For me, the best way to tackle this is to only invest money that I can totally afford to lose. I still try to find the right time to buy but the fact that I don't miss the money means that short/mid term price fluctuations are easier to digest.
Everyone wants to buy at one point in time or the other, and something a majority of people have to do is watch the market, listen for any news, and make sure that they are buying a dip and not a downswing or an upswing. As long as they put in some effort it is relatively easy to determine the trends of Bitcoin and where everything is going to drift towards.