I remember that Gavin said he worried about a fork when block reward drops from 50 to 25 coins last winter, since there was someone coded a client with 50 coins reward forever. But it seems that fork had some technical problems and was not able to maintain the stable block generation, so it ended without many people knowing of it
Time is on our side here. The longer bitcoin is in existence (and the larger the userbase gets) the more unlikely it is for a fork to gain momentum.