Hello,

this is probably going to be another controversial topic, but I think, I'd start it for the heck of it. You can all scream at each other about how wrong the other person is, but please refrain from excessive verbal abuse.

To preface this, I'd define "survive" as being at least a few years old, holding steady or rising in value and having no indication of imminent end of the project/blockchain.

Anyway, I was just asking myself this:
At the moment, there are hundreds of Altcoins out there. Let's assume, that in ten to twenty years, blockchain is a word everybody knows like everybody knows the word internet.

How many altcoins/blockchain project/whatever you wanna call it, apart from Bitcoin will be out there? I'm not asking for specific names, I'm asking for an estimation.

I think you can roughly group all altcoin projects into two camps: the "pure" currencies, that are basically value transfer systems and the "blockchain as a service" groups. In both camps, there is a lot of redundancy, so that just a few will survive. I think it is going to be more than just bitcoin, though. BTC and ETH are a realistic scenario, although I's say it would be more like 3-5 value transfer coins plus two BaaS projects, who may have a bunch of different tokens associated with them.

Thoughts?