By now, we know much more about the tokens. This reduction in uncertainty has already led to a surge to 0.60$ per token from initially 0.30$.

In my opinion, the conversion offer to get Bitfinex shares is worthless. Even if everybody converts their tokens, it means that everyone has to wait three times as long to get their money back. This can seen simply by considering that token holders will be paid back first, before any dividends are emitted. But only (up to) one third of the dividends will flow to the converted token holders. Thus, it will take much longer to get the money back... if they make 10 millions in profits per year, it will take 18 years. But on the plus side, you will own a piece of Bitfinex which lasts as long as Bitfinex exists. But I would not bet on that.

So if you don't convert, what are these tokens worth? If Bitfinex continues to repay about 1.2% every month, that amounts to 14% per year. In that case, it will take roughly 7 years to get your money back. But at a price of 0.60$, it only takes about four years to get your investment back and the next three years will be profits.

In other words: if you are confident that Bitfinex can last for another four years and get your money back after that time. And if it lasts for another seven years (with flat growth), you will get a return of about 8% per year over the. That's not great, but better than nothing.

To conclude: if you have an investment opportunity that yields more than 8% per year at a similar risk, you should sell your BFX and go for that. For example, if you believe that Bitcoin will double in price every four years, that's a much better investment.