Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
by
losangeles
on 21/03/2013, 05:33:42 UTC

My problem with that theory is that much of the recent gains are due to a recent rash of good news.  What happens when there is bad news? Granted, the good news is real news, but it's been decidedly pro-Bitcoin for weeks.  We are due some bad news, like a major exchange hack.  We are, IMHO, beyond a price point that is justifiable with the current size of the actual bitcoin economic activity alone.  Hype leads to speculative bubbles.  We all know this.  What we don't know is how long we can ride it before sentiment turns sour.  What happens to the European banking panic when the asinine deposit tax proposal in Cyprus goes down in flames?  Or there is a compromise that doesn't spell the worst?  The sudden influx of Euro denominated wealth cannot be maintained.  Once the pool of risk adverse Europeans (an irony, I know) has all moved the greater part of their deposits into Bitcoin (or gold/silver/whatever) who is going to be left to support the bid wall?  Can that bid wall be supported by Argentines and Iranians evading capital controls?  I doubt it.  That's what Bitcoin is good for, but it doesn't really matter so much what the exchange price actually is if Bitcoin is only being used as a workaround for a bottleneck in the fiat currency system.

imho the people with enough cash to move around due to international monetary news probably have a reason or two to have an asset like bitcoin.  so i agree with you on all that, but i also think the exposure bitcoin is getting in this cyprus debacle is enough to turn on some people, with significant assets, who see a use for it beyond the ones you mention.

i don't think the existing monetary system will ever come crashing down, but that people with significant wealth will always want options for maneuvering within it.