"640 kB ought to be enough for anybody" - Bill Gates ... and look at us now.

... Bitcoin allow for scaling, but you should not run into it with
closed eyes, hoping you not going to kill yourself. This experiment needs cautious people with open minds... putting investors interest first. I
would like to see bigger blocks, but not at the expense of the whole experiment.

LOL, bitcoin block size can't be estimated, maybe in 2050, bitcoin block is 100MB, who knows? At that time, there will be over 10 M or even 100M people use bitocin, the population will be 10 B.
It can be estimated. The blocksize is too big if it does not allow for users to run their own nodes in a decent computer. It's as simple as that. If the node cannot be run on single computers but on specialized computers/farms, its over. Right now 1mb is a sweet spot where it allows for it to be run on single computers.