For the price to go lower, it requires that someone is willing to sell. Selling is not rational any more, buying is.
Seems to me that the only thing possibly upcoming which *might* trigger that happening, is if there's some kind of incredible hype marketing machine gearing up behind the ZCash launch, which -- despite all the technical superiority of Monero -- *might* be able to irrationally induce less-informed HODL'ers to jump ship for the "shiny new" or "latest and greatest" anon coin.
IF something like that happens, however, I believe it will be short-lived and the backlash will be severe... and ultimately probably of long-term benefit to XMR.
But still, point is that it may get UGLY for awhile... Monero-ites need to be prepared for that. We'll just have to see how it goes, I guess.
Anyway, I know I'm gonna be tempted to try and play something off of ZCash when it launches, probably... short the shit outta it, if possible, and use the profits to acquire more XMR... LOL. But honestly I know I should probably not even try that as I'll get my ass handed to me as usual, one way or the other LOL.
IAC my long-term, base stash of XMR is gonna remain locked up safe & sound in cold wallets as always. Maybe I'll play it with a little expendable fiat only... heh. We'll see.