3.
Your question.
However, it is not clear why you think that 15% of the market you estimated (1M BTC) is that much unrealistic, given the total absence of any competition.
I never said it is unrealistic. It is my estimation of the potential market. So I agree it is realistic. But with the existing financial model the ROI for ICO participants will be about
10% and is fully dependent on the insurance fund performance. The insurance fund will be composed of different crypto assets. So I don't understand an ICO investor motivation. He can just invest his funds into one of Iconomi funds or create his own portfolio with the same assets as your insurance fund. Adding the risk of losing all the profits (or even more if several hacks will happen during the first year, please remember that ICO investors will take the risks at the start of the project) is not worth of gaining additional 3% ROI. Moreover, there can be
no dividends at all if the DAO votes accordingly.
As I mentioned before just holding your funds in BTC is a more safe and profitable strategy.
3) No disrespect but you are mixing several unrelated things together.
As an Investor you can invest in one of the Iconomi funds as you mentioned or invest in the Inchain DAO. To simplify the case, let's say they perform equally. Thus the difference is that in the Inchain DAO case the participants may vote for not paying dividends and to increase the reserves. This will increase the intrinsic value of our coins because the reserves belong to the Inchain DAO. If you are not happy with the decision made by the majority of the DAO you can freely sell you tokens and the price of which will reflect the increase in reserves. So you will get your share of profits anyway.
If you decided to invest in bonds, you just diversify your investment portfolio having both fixed and non fixed income instruments. Your return as the bond investor does not depend on the DAO performance at all. All you should be concerned with is the hacks.
Overall, we should assess different types of investments such as crypto currencies and crypto currency funds, bonds and the DAO separately as they imply different types of risks and rewards.
My main point is that ICO investors take the risks of the insurance fund performance but don't get all the fund profits - they get the profits part only. And in numbers it looks not very attractive now.
I consider the long-term investment strategy so I don't pay attention to the token price changes. It may be attractive but I can't predict the price or even estimate it. I work with the numbers that I can 'touch'. So I'm interested in dividends. This is my personal approach only.
Speculations can be very profitable but I'm not professional with them.
About the token intrinsic value. The crypto market prices have the speculative nature mostly. So the price will be dependent on the majority mood or expectations. For example, why should I buy the token that didn't pay any dividends? The only reason is that the price will grow. The token price may not increase just because it has some reserve fund behind it. The reserve fund doesn't work for money, it doesn't give any additional value. The reserve fund can be stolen or the DAO can decide to use it in some non-profitable way.
People should be convinced the company business goes well and can produce a stable profit. If it doesn't produce profit to its current investors why should new investors appear?
Yes, the token price can grow because the reserve fund helps to avoid critical situations. But it won't grow proportionally to the reserves amount.
In general the price formation is very complex and has many other factors of influence except intrinsic value.
Your return as the bond investor does not depend on the DAO performance at all
I don't agree. At the non-transparent traditional markets it may be. But if at a certain moment the insurance fund shows some loss and the reserve fund can't cover it (everything can be seen in the blockchain) the bonds price will drop immediately.