Does your point about Bitcoin adoption have any solid numbers behind it?  I can tell you that gox is flooded with new users, coinbase is flooded with new users, and blockchain.info is flooded with new users.  What do you have to show for your assertion that the user base has not even doubled?

PS: Good analysis, learned from it, but it's a technical one, I think you make a mistake in saying news is not fundamental because as more people becomes aware of bitcoin, demand will rise and so will price.