My short term outlook is negative. There is a somewhat likely scenario that XMR does not have positive news, 0.01 is tested and fails, and BTC continues to look good.
In this case, nothing is preventing testing 0.004. That one will hold

That pretty much depends on the whales if they want to crucify Monero until it is dead (and help it later to resurrect as well).
In the same manner as the fiat currencies are controlled by the centrla bank, Monero is controlled by the whales. If a whale (not to mention Cthulhu) wants the price to go down, the small fish basically cannot prevent it from not doing so.
I think that is also a weakness of the current state of Monero (and crypto in general). It is controlled by very small club who can and will manipulate the price to their favor.
In case a whale wants to dump, I have some bids on the way to the grave.
Buy XMR 3 days after you are certain it is dead ... I am circling 17 April 2017 as a likely candidate