My short term outlook is negative. There is a somewhat likely scenario that XMR does not have positive news, 0.01 is tested and fails, and BTC continues to look good.
In this case, nothing is preventing testing 0.004. That one will hold

Risto,
Can you clarify "XMR does not have positive news"? Is the bad news that XMR is in a downward trend looking for its floor or is the bad news more sinister such a security breach or major delay in releasing new code?
I agree that I see no reason for XMR to not drop back to 0.004.
Thanks,