Just to set expectations for the results of today's parliamentary elections in Iceland:
- The Pirate Party is definitely not going to win as in becoming the biggest political party,
- however, the bloc (APSV) controlled by the Pirates has a 58% chance of winning the majority of seats in the Althingi,
- augmented to a 98% chance if the right-liberal C party joins the bloc, as they have been invited to, while
- the current (BD) majority is 98% guaranteed to fall, and
- the only majority not including the Pirates (BCD) is 42% likely.
For the mathematically inclined, here are the results of a statistically rigid Monte Carlo simulation based on a weighted and probability-distributed set of the latest polls:
http://kosningaspa.is/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/thingmannaspa28-9.pngKey to the figure:
The red line denotes the cut-off for a majority in the 63-seat Althingi
APSV=the Pirate-led (P) bloc
BD=the currently reigning parties
C=the new right-wing liberal (wildcard) party
