There is no rational method that would help determine the real value of bitcoins. In addition, measurement values, based on the indicators of circulation of bitcoins, is in itself wrong, because no circulation does not exist, and all transactions occurring since the money already have some value for people. And the frequency of circulation does not depend on the total stock of currency. Bitcoins are often traded only by the fact that there is such a possibility.
Just because you don't know of any such methods doesn't mean that there is none. The true value of a currency is determined by the amount of goods that can be bought with it and the volume of services that can be rendered for it. The real value of Bitcoin can be determined pretty much likewise. You take the amount of goods and services that are offered directly for bitcoins (a real component of Bitcoin price), see how much bitcoins are traded (a speculative component of Bitcoin price), then find how much the former would cost without the speculative component. After that, you find the value of the same amount of goods and services in some base currency (for example, the US dollar or gold if you don't like the American dollar), divide the Bitcoin amount by the US dollar amount and get how much Bitcoin is really worth in terms of goods and services denominated in the base currency...
Are you sure that your account name is not a misnomer?