Exactly... that's my theory for how this will play out.

I see two possible future extremes:

1) Everybody has full access to the core Bitcoin network and every transaction is settled on the Blockchain,

2) Aggregators / net settlement providers spring up to provide "concentration" of transactions off-blockchain, with periodic net settlements across the blockchain.  Most "normal" users access the system through one of these entry points.  They may not even "know" their Bitcoin address.


Future 1) implies a need for massive increases in the scalability of the Bitcoin network and perhaps some rearchitecture to prevent the size of the Blockchain ballooning out of control.  It also implies a need for huge investment in retail-customer-friendly tools/technologies to deal with the lack of chargeback/customer protections/"compensation for your own stupid acts" that retail customers get (and expect) from their banks and card providers.     Entirely achievable - but it requires huge efforts along multiple dimensions (Bitcoin network, consumer education, POS infrastructure, etc, etc).    Note: without this, transaction fees will grow to the point that the only viable transactions are large ones in any case (i.e. micropayments would be unaffordable)

Future 2) is far more compatible with the world "as it is" today but dilutes several of the key benefits of Bitcoin (transaction finality, no need to trust a bank, anonymity (for some definition of that word), etc, etc)


My prediction: we'll end up with a hybrid system:  the rigor and strictness of the core Bitcoin network will prove too onerous for the average user and they will trade-off the BTC benefits for the convenience of Visa/MC/a bank/whatever for day-to-day use.  BUT... direct access to the Bitcoin network will provide the opportunity for a few (many?) people directly to store the bulk of their BTC holdings on the blockchain and not via a bank.

So you get the convenience of today's system for day-to-day low-value transactions whilst being able to hold savings/wealth on the chain.

Like I say, just a prediction..... but if true, it has implications for where we should be spending our efforts with respect to technology build-out, etc, etc.