Most definitely current super-growth will also peak out at some yet unknown value (triple digits, in my opinion), then gradually fallback to a lower level (above 32, but lower than 100), recuperate for a year or two, then a third huge wave would start, with a bottom of this year's high, whatever it will be.
Certainly below $32. There is no basis for a genuine price rise to $32. Bitcoin is not used much, except for speculation.
[...]
The price will continue to rise as long as enough new "speculators" stream into the market and part with their money. As soon as they are all in, the price will drop like a stone, too fast for practically all of them to sell at a gain. Mt.Gox will drop dead for the most part, as usual in extreme market movements.
The thing is, there are lots of speculators out there. It's also a question of how long it will take the media to become bored.
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Stocks tend to oscillate around the "fair value". There is no such thing for bitcoin, though, it all depends on how many people want to hold what amount of value in bitcoin.
estimate:
PayPal has ~110 million users. Wild guess: each of them will want to hold on average $200 of value in bitcoin for various reasons like purchasing stuff, hedging against inflation, speculation.
110 * 200 / 21 = 1047 usd/btc
Stocks tend to oscillate around the "fair value". There is no such thing for bitcoin, though, it all depends on how many people want to hold what amount of value in bitcoin.
estimate:
PayPal has ~110 million users. Wild guess: each of them will want to hold on average $200 of value in bitcoin for various reasons like purchasing stuff, hedging against inflation, speculation.
110 * 200 / 21 = 1047 usd/btc
Of course we will oscillate downwards, too, before we get there.
Also, everybody should look at the logarithmic charts. Things are put into perspective then.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=156049 "Logarithmic Scale - tl;dr!: USE IT!"