anecdotal evidence + ambiguous time frame + assumption based on anecdotal evidence = crash!
Just watch
http://bitcoinity.org/markets from time to time and see for yourself.
I called bubble @ the 3rd ever run up to $15, I was so relieved to have cashed out 2/3's of all my coins before then.
I still think it's a bubble but hell I thought $2.60 per coin was risky too. Use the knowledge you have and learn from mistakes. If Bitcoin is going to be a big thing this growth is a little slow.