With huge odds offered, Bookmakers got it all wrong this time, Real Madrid is way over priced @3.10 , i will tell you why. Over the last 5 games, Real Madrid have scored 16 goals and conceded 4 goals. Atl. Madrid have scored 13 goals and conceded 6 goals. Real Madrid have won 4 out of its last 5 games on the road, always scored more than 1,5 goals and 3x scored over 2,5 goals. Although Atl Madrid will be at home infront of their fans and Simone shouting above his voice, they just don't have in them to find the Real Madrid's net more than 1 time. Trust me Antone Griezman, Juanfran, Yannick Carrasco, are very good players and they have good defense of Godin, Luiz. However Real Madrid will always find a way to break through, Their attack/offensiveness starts at the back with Marcelo, Midfield is very solid and forwards is something else.
Bet on Real Madrid @3.10
OR
Bet on Real Madrid To Win Either Half @1.95
I like your structured analysis, and I really hope your prediction will happen. But in a tough derby, the result would be unpredictable, no matter how bad or how good both of teams in previous matches. Also Real Madrid are being on crisis now, since there are many injured players like Pepe, Ramos, Kroos, Casemiro, and now Morata. Not sure if Modric could handle the midfield without Kroos and Casemiro. Also the duet of Varane-Nacho in center back is not too good imo.