Fighting in Brazil should help the Brazilian fighters, since they usually fight better at home with a partisan home crowd. I think the main event will be a better fight than most people expect, with the winner staying in title contention, while the loser dropping off into a gatekeeper status and possible retirement on the horizon. It is tough to make a prediction in this fight since both fighters are equally matched, but I think that Bader has more left in the tank than Nogueira and will win a split decision.