Post
Topic
Board Securities
Re: S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx
by
Peter Lambert
on 28/03/2013, 16:24:16 UTC
Why is the price dropping so much? The dividend from the last two months decreased but not by that much

Because there will be no profits this month, which means no dividends. Price will probably fall below .003

where can we follow current monthly profit/loss?


Dooglus usually does daily updates here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.1080

Even though the month is flat, we're still above the statistically expected profit overall, so we might be in for a few more flat months.

This is a misunderstanding of the rules of probability. For systems like this, past results have no bearing on future results. The expected profits for April are not related to what happens in March. (With the caveat here that since this is a business things are a bit different. If we actually get a loss for the month, then that would be carried forward into April, but if it just breaks even then April is unaffected.)

To get a better grasp of this, lets assume that when you have a child you have an equal probability of having a boy or a girl. I already have two girls, what is the probability that my next child will be a boy?

Answer: The probability of having a boy is 50%, the same as it was for the first child.