I believe there are many other reasons, but you are correct that the market release will be the big one. Funny how most people will wait until after the release when the price is already skyrocketing. But it always works that way, and doubters become instant believers.

I would bet it will be sooner than you think. Obviously the developers are playing this one close to the vest. You have to consider they are doing something that has never been done before, and want the quality to be consistent with the excellence of previous releases. There will be a ton of other coins trying to copy what they did. Many things to consider. The biggest one is that I believe almost everyone underestimates the long term impact this is going to have.