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Board Beginners & Help
Re: Maximum value of bitcoins
by
ffe
on 31/03/2013, 03:49:18 UTC
Would it be possible to calculate the maximum theoretical value of bitcoins by dividing the world gdp by the maximum number of bitcoins, if so then i am going to have the best retirement ever!  Grin

if we say the world gdp is $80 trillion (its rising so this will cover future estimates) and knowing that the maximum number of bitcoins is 21 million then we have something like $4 000 000 per bitcoin.

I am sure this number is wrong and makes some massive assumptions but if we were to find a theoretical maximum value how would be go about it, is it possible? I mean in the context of when/if the world moves to bitcoin

EDIT:
Someone asked about the total cash in the world and a very nice person gave calculations and explanations leading to a value of $46 trillion which was around the same as the GDP at the time so it seems that GDP may be an adequate estimate for the amount of money in the world. Either way, with a total amount of cash at $40 trillion we would still get $2 000 000 a bitcoin
http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=480224

I read someplace that the total amount of gold ever mined is a little over 5,000,000,000 oz. Since gold is much more desirable than paper it should be worth $46 trillion / 5 billion = $9,200 per oz.

Since gold is really only $1,600 per oz., people must have only a certain level of desire to replace paper with gold. If we assume that same ratio applies to Bitcoin then

$46 trillion / 21 million Bitcoins x (ratio 1600/9200)  = $380,952 per Bitcoin

Now in reality a lot of the gold ever mined was lost so the 5 billion oz. number is probably smaller, lowering the ultimate price of Bitcoin. This is countered by an argument that Bitcoins are more convenient to hold and use than gold. So on balance I think we can say the ultimate price ceiling is somewhere near $400,000.